NYSE · ONTO

Onto Innovation Inc.

Technology · Semiconductors

$284.42▲ 3.06% ($8.44)today

As of 3:40 PM ET

52-week

$118.97$386.46

Market cap

$14.15B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $284.42, this model requires revenue to grow by 39.81%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 6.25%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 33.57 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

9.22%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 14.46%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

39.81%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$284.42

Estimated value / share

$51.11

Base scenario

This estimate is 82.03% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 14.46% · Ending margin 12.48% · Discount rate 12.74%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 22, 2026, 7:40 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 22, 2026, 7:40 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 6 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 32.9%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 6 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 35.3%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 112.1%Revenue (TTM): 8.08%FCF (TTM): 5.86%P/FCF: 88th pct

What changed

The stock rose 112.1% over the last year. Revenue grew 8.08% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 18.42% to 12.48%. Free cash flow grew 5.86% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved higher with no clear directional signal from operating metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 12.48%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 8.08% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Onto Innovation Inc. is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and supporting cutting-edge process control solutions.

CEOMichael Plisinski

SectorTechnology

IndustrySemiconductors

Employees1,867

IPO dateOct 28, 2019

https://www.ontoinnovation.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA35.01

Enterprise value$7.82B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth35.3%

Gross margin (FY2025)49.72%▼2.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)13.22%▼5.7ppvs FY2024

ROE6.82%0.0ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$385.56▲35.56%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 5, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.27 · Revenue est $392.23M

View