NASDAQ · PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
Industrials · Staffing & Employment Services
$101.59▼ 2.78% ($2.90)at close
Pre-market$101.51▼ 0.08%4:01 AM ET
Market cap
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price between Bear and Base.
The price needs 6.1% free cash flow growth a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −0.8–24.6%.
That's below its past 10-year pace of 9.6%.
Value per share
Base case
$119.34
Price used $101.59 is 15% below this
USD · TTM ending Aug 31, 2026 · Price Sep 24, 8:00 PM UTC
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
3 more notes
Working capital change smoothed: single-period ΔOWC exceeded ±5% of revenue and was capped to reduce timing noise.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~1% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $1.9B. The price needs $3.3B by 2036. Base case: $3.9B. At its recent pace: $4.7B. Bear to Bull: $2.1B to $10.7B.
Free cash flow today $1.9B. The price needs $3.3B by 2036. Base case: $3.9B. At its recent pace: $4.7B. Bear to Bull: $2.1B to $10.7B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $1.9B
−$573Mless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$119.34
Price $101.59
15% below this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 9.6%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 5.3%
- Discount rate
- 9.0%
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
3 more notes
Working capital change smoothed: single-period ΔOWC exceeded ±5% of revenue and was capped to reduce timing noise.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~1% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
USD · TTM ending Aug 31, 2026 · Price Sep 24, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 20.8% over the last year. Revenue grew 13.97% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 38.03% to 39.19%. Free cash flow grew 4.89% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 5th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.
What would invalidate this read
This read changes if operating margin (currently 39.19%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.
Return analysis
Company profile
Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Rochester, New York, Paychex, Inc. delivers comprehensive human capital management (HCM) solutions.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
5
Buy
21
Hold
4
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Dec 18, 2026
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.29 · Revenue est $1.62B
View
Institutional Sentiment
Paychex, Inc. · PAYX
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.