NASDAQ · PEP

PepsiCo, Inc.

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

$136.65▼ 0.03% ($0.04)at close

After hours$136.81▲ 0.12%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$133.73$171.48

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $136.65, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -3.75%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 3.3%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 7.04 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

3.3%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-3.75%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$136.65

Estimated value / share

$202.23

Base scenario

This estimate is 47.99% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-13

Market beta (0.36) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.

Stage 1 3.3% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 6.38%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-13
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 2:42 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, stable, long-lived, and the business looks mature enough that a direct FCFF DCF can use historical cash flow as the anchor.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 27 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 25.8%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 27 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue growth and margin behavior look mature enough for direct FCFF compounding.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -4.21%Revenue (TTM): 5.62%FCF (TTM): 31.4%P/FCF: 3rd pct

What changed

The stock fell 4.21% over the last year. Revenue grew 5.62% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 13.47% to 14.96%. Free cash flow grew 31.4% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved lower against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 14.96%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 5.62% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

PepsiCo, Inc. is a global enterprise that creates, promotes, and supplies a diverse array of drinks and easy-to-prepare food items across the globe.

CEORamon Luis Laguarta

SectorConsumer Defensive

IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic

Employees306,000

IPO dateJun 1, 1972

https://www.pepsico.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA15.27

Enterprise value$237.34B

Stock splits

May 29, 1996↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 5, 1990↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

May 29, 1986↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

May 31, 1977↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth6.4%

Gross margin53.96%▼0.4ppvs FY2024

Operating margin14.96%▲0.3ppvs FY2024

ROE51.76%▲8.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$155.64▲13.90%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 8, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.30 · Revenue est $25B

View

Dividends

$5.81/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 49yrAdequate

PEP pays a dividend with a 4.25% dividend yield, 49 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.71% annually, covered 1.0× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

4.25%

Annual Div / Share

$5.81

5yr CAGR

+6.71%

Doubles every ~10.7yr

Payout Ratio

74.48%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+6.32%

5yr CAGR

+6.71%

10yr CAGR

+7.15%

Dividend Safety

5/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$5.80+4.5%

2025$5.55+6.0%

2024$5.24+8.5%

2023$4.83+8.5%

2022$4.45+6.1%

2021$4.20+6.1%

2020$3.96+5.0%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$42/yr

$4/mo

In 5 yrs

$59/yr+38%

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$81/yr+91%

$7/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$42/yr $4/mo	$59/yr+38% $5/mo	$81/yr+91% $7/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 4.25% → 8.13% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

PEP has raised its dividend for 49 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 6.71% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NASDAQ · PEP

PepsiCo, Inc.

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

$136.65▼ 0.03% ($0.04)at close

After hours$136.81▲ 0.12%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$133.73$171.48

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $136.65, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -3.75%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 3.3%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 7.04 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

3.3%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-3.75%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$136.65

Estimated value / share

$202.23

Base scenario

This estimate is 47.99% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-13

Market beta (0.36) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.

Stage 1 3.3% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 6.38%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-13
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 2:42 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, stable, long-lived, and the business looks mature enough that a direct FCFF DCF can use historical cash flow as the anchor.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 27 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 25.8%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 27 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue growth and margin behavior look mature enough for direct FCFF compounding.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -4.21%Revenue (TTM): 5.62%FCF (TTM): 31.4%P/FCF: 3rd pct

What changed

The stock fell 4.21% over the last year. Revenue grew 5.62% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 13.47% to 14.96%. Free cash flow grew 31.4% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 14.96%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 5.62% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

PepsiCo, Inc. is a global enterprise that creates, promotes, and supplies a diverse array of drinks and easy-to-prepare food items across the globe.

CEORamon Luis Laguarta

SectorConsumer Defensive

IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic

Employees306,000

IPO dateJun 1, 1972

https://www.pepsico.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA15.27

Enterprise value$237.34B

Stock splits

May 29, 1996↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 5, 1990↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

May 29, 1986↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

May 31, 1977↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth6.4%

Gross margin53.96%▼0.4ppvs FY2024

Operating margin14.96%▲0.3ppvs FY2024

ROE51.76%▲8.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$155.64▲13.90%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 8, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.30 · Revenue est $25B

View

Dividends

$5.81/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 49yrAdequate

PEP pays a dividend with a 4.25% dividend yield, 49 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.71% annually, covered 1.0× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

4.25%

Annual Div / Share

$5.81

5yr CAGR

+6.71%

Doubles every ~10.7yr

Payout Ratio

74.48%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+6.32%

5yr CAGR

+6.71%

10yr CAGR

+7.15%

Dividend Safety

5/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$5.80+4.5%

2025$5.55+6.0%

2024$5.24+8.5%

2023$4.83+8.5%

2022$4.45+6.1%

2021$4.20+6.1%

2020$3.96+5.0%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$42/yr

$4/mo

In 5 yrs

$59/yr+38%

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$81/yr+91%

$7/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$42/yr $4/mo	$59/yr+38% $5/mo	$81/yr+91% $7/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 4.25% → 8.13% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

PEP has raised its dividend for 49 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 6.71% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.