NYSE · PGR
The Progressive Corporation
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
$217.62▲ 0.66% ($1.43)at close
As of 4:00 PM ET
Market cap
$126.52B
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 12.53% over the last year. Revenue grew 10.53% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 15.94% to 16.23%. Free cash flow declined 3.17% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 33rd percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.
What would invalidate this read
This read changes if operating margin (currently 16.23%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.
Performance
Return analysis
Company profile
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 4
Every 1 shares became 3
Every 1 shares became 3
Every 4 shares became 9
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Every 2 shares became 3
Profitability & growth
Standard profitability metrics can be misleading for financial/insurance companies. GAAP requires unrealized investment gains/losses in net income (affecting ROE), and margins are blended across diverse business segments.
Analyst consensus
16
Buy
22
Hold
4
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Oct 21, 2026
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $4.00 · Revenue est $22.28B
View
Dividends
$13.90/shareQuarterly3yr growth streakEx-div Oct 1, 2026 · in 19dAdequatePGR pays a dividend with a 6.39% declared yield, 3 consecutive years of growth, growing at 13.08% annually, covered 6.0× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
6.39%
Annual Div / Share
$13.90
5yr CAGR
+13.08%
Doubles every ~5.6yr
Payout Ratio
69.66%
Adequate
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+130.52%
5yr CAGR
+13.08%
10yr CAGR
+21.72%
Dividend History
Annual dividends paid per share
Income Projection
Today
$5/mo
In 5 yrs
$9/mo
In 10 yrs
$17/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$64/yr $5/mo | $113/yr+76% $9/mo | $198/yr+211% $17/mo |
Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.
Yield-on-cost grows from 6.39% → 19.84% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 6.0× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 13.08% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.