Reading the tape
NYSE: PGR
The Progressive Corporation
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Market Cap
$113.48B
52w High
$289.96
52w Low
$191.76
P/E
9.83
Volume
2.70M
Outstanding Shares
584.96M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence
1Y Price: -31.67%Revenue (TTM): 13.91%FCF (TTM): 4.37%P/FCF: 10th pct
What changed
The stock fell 31.67% over the last year. Revenue grew 13.91% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 14.02% to 16.27%. Free cash flow grew 4.37% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 10th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.
What would invalidate this read
This read changes if operating margin (currently 16.27%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.
Company profile
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States.
CEOSusan Patricia Griffith
SectorFinancial Services
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Employees66,308
IPO dateMar 17, 1980
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA9.47
Enterprise value$140.28B
Price / Book3.74
Stock splits
May 19, 2006↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 4
Apr 23, 2002↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 3
Dec 9, 1992↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 3
May 27, 1986↑ Forward
Every 4 shares became 9
May 28, 1985↑ Forward
Every 2 shares became 3
May 16, 1983↑ Forward
Every 2 shares became 3
Jun 8, 1981↑ Forward
Every 2 shares became 3
Sep 23, 1980↑ Forward
Every 2 shares became 3
Profitability & growth
Standard profitability metrics can be misleading for financial/insurance companies. GAAP requires unrealized investment gains/losses in net income (affecting ROE), and margins are blended across diverse business segments.
Revenue growth8.71%
Gross margin28.44%▲6.25%vs FY2024
Operating margin16.27%▲14.14%vs FY2024
ROE37.29%▲12.54%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingHold
Target price$230.27▲18.70%
17
Buy
20
Hold
4
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Jul 15, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $3.82 · Revenue est $21.68B
View
Dividends
$13.90/shareQuarterly3yr growth streakAdequatePGR pays a dividend with a 7.16% dividend yield, 3 consecutive years of growth, growing at 23.19% annually, covered 6.0× by free cash flow.
Dividend Yield
7.16%
Annual Div / Share
$13.90
5yr CAGR
+23.19%
Doubles every ~3.3yr
Payout Ratio
70.49%
Adequate
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+226.33%
5yr CAGR
+23.19%
10yr CAGR
+14.49%
Dividend Safety
7/10Adequate
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$13.90+183.7%
2025$4.90+326.1%
2024$1.15+187.5%
2023$0.40-77.8%
2022$1.80-63.3%
2021$4.90+84.9%
2020$2.65-31.0%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$72/yr
$6/mo
In 5 yrs
$126/yr+76%
$11/mo
In 10 yrs
$223/yr+211%
$19/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$72/yr $6/mo | $126/yr+76% $11/mo | $223/yr+211% $19/mo |
Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.
Yield-on-cost grows from 7.16% → 22.25% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 6.0× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 23.19% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.
Congressional Activity
Congress Trades in PGR
STOCK Act disclosures from senators and representatives.
David Taylor
OHhouseRepublicanPurchase2026-04-27$1,001 - $15,000+11d to disclose
Ro Khanna
CAhouseDemocratPurchase2026-03-30$15,001 - $50,000+10d to disclose