Reading the tape
NYSE: PHM
PulteGroup, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Market Cap
$22.39B
52w High
$144.50
52w Low
$95.20
P/E
11.03
Volume
1.31M
Outstanding Shares
190.49M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Momentum disconnected from fundamentalsModerate confidence
1Y Price: 13.73%Revenue (TTM): -5.94%FCF (TTM): 13.29%P/FCF: 61st pct
What changed
The stock rose 13.73% over the last year. Revenue declined 5.94% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 20.96% to 16.4%. Free cash flow grew 13.29% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is rising despite deteriorating fundamentals and now sits at the 61st percentile of its historical P/FCF range. This is a momentum-driven move — the market may be front-running a recovery that has not yet appeared in reported numbers.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin (currently 16.4%) would need to stabilize or improve to justify the move. Revenue is declining 5.94% — a trend reversal in the next report would be the key signal to watch. This read is wrong if the next period shows operating metrics turning the corner. At that point the price would be anticipating real improvement rather than running ahead of it.
Company profile
PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States.
CEORyan R. Marshall
SectorConsumer Cyclical
IndustryResidential Construction
Employees6,793
IPO dateMar 17, 1980
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA7.81
Enterprise value$23.61B
Stock splits
Sep 2, 2005↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Jan 5, 2004↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Jun 2, 1998↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
May 31, 1983↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Dec 16, 1982↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Sep 8, 1980↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Jan 3, 1979↑ Forward
Every 2 shares became 3
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth-12.44%
Gross margin26.06%▼9.21%vs FY2024
Operating margin16.4%▼20.08%vs FY2024
ROE17.09%▼32.82%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingHold
Target price$141.22▲20.14%
20
Buy
21
Hold
3
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Jul 28, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $2.39 · Revenue est $3.97B
View
Dividends
$1.00/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 35yrSafePHM pays a dividend with a 0.85% declared yield, 35 consecutive years of growth, growing at 13.12% annually, covered 9.9× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
0.85%
Annual Div / Share
$1.00
TTM $0.96
5yr CAGR
+13.12%
Doubles every ~5.6yr
Payout Ratio
8.95%
Safe
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+16.65%
5yr CAGR
+13.12%
10yr CAGR
+11.07%
Dividend Safety
10/10Safe
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$1.00+16.3%
2025$0.86+13.2%
2024$0.76+20.6%
2023$0.63+6.8%
2022$0.59+9.3%
2021$0.54+14.9%
2020$0.47+11.9%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$9/yr
$1/mo
In 5 yrs
$15/yr+76%
$1/mo
In 10 yrs
$26/yr+211%
$2/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$9/yr $1/mo | $15/yr+76% $1/mo | $26/yr+211% $2/mo |
Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.
Yield-on-cost grows from 0.85% → 2.64% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Dividend Aristocrat
PHM has raised its dividend for 35 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 9.9× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 13.12% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.