NYSE · PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
$247.29▼ 0.65% ($1.63)at close
As of 4:00 PM ET
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price above Base.
The price needs 9.5% free cash flow growth a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −10.6–19.4%.
That's 2.2× its past 10-year pace.
Value per share
Base case
$190.67
Price used $247.29 is 30% above this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC
Quarterly base inputs are capped at 2026-06-30 because the latest balance sheet lags the income/cashflow statements.
4 more notes
FCFF uses the latest complete trailing statement window ending 2026-06-30; newer income or cash-flow periods are incomplete.
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~10% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $793M. The price needs $1.5B by 2036. Base case: $1.2B. At its recent pace: $1.2B. Bear to Bull: $537M to $3.2B.
Free cash flow today $793M. The price needs $1.5B by 2036. Base case: $1.2B. At its recent pace: $1.2B. Bear to Bull: $537M to $3.2B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $793M
+$313Mmore than the Base case · 1.3×
Value per share · Base case
$190.67
Price $247.29
30% above this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 4.4%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 3.5%
- Discount rate
- 7.3%
Quarterly base inputs are capped at 2026-06-30 because the latest balance sheet lags the income/cashflow statements.
4 more notes
FCFF uses the latest complete trailing statement window ending 2026-06-30; newer income or cash-flow periods are incomplete.
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~10% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock rose 15.96% over the last year. Revenue grew 11.98% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 14.14% to 13.33%.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (92nd percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 13.33% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 11.98% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Return analysis
Company profile
Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials.
Market multiples
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
9
Buy
15
Hold
2
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.
Next report
Jan 26, 2027
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.79 · Revenue est $2.6B
Same quarter, year over year
FY26 YTD +3.6%Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q3 combined $7.79 vs $7.52 · 2 of 3 quarters up
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY total
FY26
—
FY25
FY24
FY23
—
—
—
—
Fiscal year totals
- FY25
- $9.84
- +8.8%
- FY24
- $9.04
- —
Q3 FY26
Reported Oct 21, 2026 · Latest
HoverTap a cell to inspect
Actual
$3.04
Estimate
$2.93
Year over year
+11.4%
Vs prior quarter
+29.4%
Institutional Sentiment
Packaging Corporation of America · PKG
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.