NYSE · POST
Post Holdings, Inc.
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
$73.15▼ 1.34% ($0.99)at close
As of 4:00 PM ET
Market cap
$3.32B
P/E
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: cheap. Price below all scenarios.
The price holds with free cash flow shrinking 22.8% a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −13.6–16.1%.
That's below its past 10-year pace of 1.1%.
Value per share
Base case
$611.79
Price used $73.15 is 88% below this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Sep 25, 8:00 PM UTC
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
4 more notes
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Market beta (0.31) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.
The capital structure implies a discount rate of 5.39%, below the 5.68% floor (5.18% risk-free + 50bps), so 5.68% was used instead.
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $1.1B. The price needs $351M by 2036. Base case: $1.4B. At its recent pace: $1.2B. Bear to Bull: $615M to $3.5B.
Free cash flow today $1.1B. The price needs $351M by 2036. Base case: $1.4B. At its recent pace: $1.2B. Bear to Bull: $615M to $3.5B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $1.1B
−$1Bless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$611.79
Price $73.15
88% below this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 1.1%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 3.5%
- Discount rate
- 5.7%
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
4 more notes
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Market beta (0.31) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.
The capital structure implies a discount rate of 5.39%, below the 5.68% floor (5.18% risk-free + 50bps), so 5.68% was used instead.
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Sep 25, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 30.55% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.2% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 10.63% to 10.15%. Free cash flow grew 27.83% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 0th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.
What would invalidate this read
This read changes if operating margin (currently 10.15%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.
Return analysis
Company profile
Post Holdings, Inc. functions as a prominent holding company within the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, conducting business both domestically in the United States and across international markets.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 125 shares became 191
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
13
Buy
6
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Nov 19, 2026
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.79 · Revenue est $2.01B
View
Institutional Sentiment
Post Holdings, Inc. · POST
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.