NYSE · PSX

Phillips 66

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

$258.51▼ 0.87% ($2.27)at close

After hours$260.01▲ 0.58%7:48 PM ET

52-week

$126.74$263.76

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $258.51, this model requires revenue to grow by 0.05%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 4.24%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 4.20 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

10.7%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 16.78%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

0.05%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$258.51

Estimated value / share

$650.31

Base scenario

This estimate is 151.56% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 16.78% · Ending margin 6% · Discount rate 8.06%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 1:09 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 144.6%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 53.7%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 96.71%Revenue (TTM): 15.77%FCF (TTM): 329.7%P/FCF: 59th pct

What changed

The stock rose 96.71% over the last year. Revenue grew 15.77% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 0.39% to 6.67%. Free cash flow grew 329.7% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 59th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 6.67%. Revenue grew 15.77% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics.

CEOMark E. Lashier

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Employees12,600

IPO dateApr 12, 2012

https://www.phillips66.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA7.60

Enterprise value$74.16B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth53.75%

Gross margin9.78%▲1.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin6.67%▲1.0ppvs FY2024

ROE24.05%▲8.5ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$244.44▼5.44%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $8.73 · Revenue est $42.26B

View

Dividends

$5.01/shareQuarterly5yr growth streakAdequate

PSX pays a dividend with a 1.94% dividend yield, 5 consecutive years of growth, growing at 7.19% annually, covered 1.4× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.94%

Annual Div / Share

$5.01

5yr CAGR

+7.19%

Doubles every ~10.0yr

Payout Ratio

27.96%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+6.74%

5yr CAGR

+7.19%

10yr CAGR

+7.73%

Dividend Safety

8/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$5.01+6.6%

2025$4.70+6.8%

2024$4.40+6.8%

2023$4.12+9.0%

2022$3.78+6.8%

2021$3.54-1.7%

2020$3.60+5.9%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$19/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$27/yr+42%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$39/yr+100%

$3/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$19/yr $2/mo	$27/yr+42% $2/mo	$39/yr+100% $3/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.94% → 3.88% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 7.19% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · PSX

Phillips 66

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

$258.51▼ 0.87% ($2.27)at close

After hours$260.01▲ 0.58%7:48 PM ET

52-week

$126.74$263.76

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $258.51, this model requires revenue to grow by 0.05%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 4.24%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 4.20 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

10.7%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 16.78%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

0.05%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$258.51

Estimated value / share

$650.31

Base scenario

This estimate is 151.56% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 16.78% · Ending margin 6% · Discount rate 8.06%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 1:09 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 144.6%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 96.71%Revenue (TTM): 15.77%FCF (TTM): 329.7%P/FCF: 59th pct

What changed

The stock rose 96.71% over the last year. Revenue grew 15.77% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 0.39% to 6.67%. Free cash flow grew 329.7% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 59th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics.

CEOMark E. Lashier

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Employees12,600

IPO dateApr 12, 2012

https://www.phillips66.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA7.60

Enterprise value$74.16B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth53.75%

Gross margin9.78%▲1.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin6.67%▲1.0ppvs FY2024

ROE24.05%▲8.5ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$244.44▼5.44%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $8.73 · Revenue est $42.26B

View

Dividends

$5.01/shareQuarterly5yr growth streakAdequate

PSX pays a dividend with a 1.94% dividend yield, 5 consecutive years of growth, growing at 7.19% annually, covered 1.4× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.94%

Annual Div / Share

$5.01

5yr CAGR

+7.19%

Doubles every ~10.0yr

Payout Ratio

27.96%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+6.74%

5yr CAGR

+7.19%

10yr CAGR

+7.73%

Dividend Safety

8/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$5.01+6.6%

2025$4.70+6.8%

2024$4.40+6.8%

2023$4.12+9.0%

2022$3.78+6.8%

2021$3.54-1.7%

2020$3.60+5.9%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$19/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$27/yr+42%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$39/yr+100%

$3/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$19/yr $2/mo	$27/yr+42% $2/mo	$39/yr+100% $3/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.94% → 3.88% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 7.19% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.