Reading the tape
NASDAQ: REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Market Cap
$253.49M
52w High
$15.20
52w Low
$10.74
P/E
7.01
Volume
589.14
Outstanding Shares
21.08M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Likely multiple compressionModerate confidence
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
1Y Price: -18.64%Revenue (TTM): 4.76%FCF (TTM): 24.32%P/E: 6th pct
What changed
The stock fell 18.64% over the last year. Revenue grew 4.76% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 0% to 14.21%. Free cash flow grew 24.32% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 6th percentile of their historical P/E range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.
What would invalidate this read
This read changes if operating margin (currently 14.21%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.
Company profile
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate finance company in the United States.
CEOAnthony Robert Cappell
SectorReal Estate
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Employees—
IPO dateDec 8, 2021
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA9.47
Enterprise value$340.99M
Price / Book0.82
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Standard profitability metrics can be misleading for financial/insurance companies. GAAP requires unrealized investment gains/losses in net income (affecting ROE), and margins are blended across diverse business segments.
Revenue growth15.63%
Gross margin96.62%▼13.12%vs FY2024
Operating margin14.21%
ROE11.7%▼2.43%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingBuy
Target price$14.00▲16.42%
5
Buy
1
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 7, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $0.48 · Revenue est $13.69M
View
Dividends
$1.88/shareQuarterlyStretchedREFI pays a dividend with a 15.63% dividend yield, covered 0.7× by free cash flow.
Dividend Yield
15.63%
Annual Div / Share
$1.88
3yr CAGR
-4.67%
FCF Coverage
0.7×
Stretched
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
-4.67%
Dividend Safety
2/10Stretched
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2025$1.88-8.7%
2024$2.06-5.1%
2023$2.17+0.0%
2022$2.17—
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$156/yr
$13/mo
In 5 yrs
$156/yr
$13/mo
In 10 yrs
$156/yr
$13/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$156/yr $13/mo | $156/yr $13/mo | $156/yr $13/mo |
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
No strong strength signal stands out from the latest period pair.
Risks to Watch
Dividend exceeds free cash flow
Free cash flow covers only 0.66× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.