NYSE · SAP

SAP SE

Technology · Software - Application

$205.95▼ 1.53% ($3.19)at close

After hours$206.00▲ 0.02%6:29 PM ET

52-week

$144.97$281.37

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $205.95, this model requires revenue to grow by 9.31%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 8.1%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.22 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

5.37%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 8.4%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

9.31%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$205.95

Estimated value / share

$155.16

Base scenario

This estimate is 24.66% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 8.4% · Ending margin 27.44% · Discount rate 9.35%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:01 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 4:27 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 23 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 57.6%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 23 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Operating margin moved 12.5 percentage points across the last five years, above the 10.0-point stability threshold, so steady-state FCFF is not a reliable anchor yet.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -20.94%Revenue (TTM): 6.43%FCF (TTM): 34.15%P/FCF: 28th pct

What changed

The stock fell 20.94% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.43% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 25.13% to 26.79%. Free cash flow grew 34.15% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 28th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 26.79%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

SAP SE, founded in Walldorf, Germany, in 1972, is a global provider of diverse software applications, technology, and services.

CEOChristian Klein

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Employees112,019

IPO dateSep 18, 1995

https://www.sap.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA19.95

Enterprise value$240.91B

Stock splits

Jul 28, 1998↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 4

+300%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth9.43%

Gross margin73.16%▼0.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin27.66%▲12.5ppvs FY2024

ROE18.19%▲2.3ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$237.25▲15.20%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 21, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.04 · Revenue est $11.53B

View

Dividends

$2.94/shareAnnual3yr growth streakSafe

SAP pays a dividend with a 1.43% dividend yield, 3 consecutive years of growth, growing at 5.41% annually, covered 3.0× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.43%

Annual Div / Share

$2.94

TTM $2.50

5yr CAGR

+5.41%

Doubles every ~13.2yr

Payout Ratio

36.21%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+9.61%

5yr CAGR

+5.41%

10yr CAGR

+8.46%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$2.94+11.8%

2025$2.63+10.0%

2024$2.39+7.1%

2023$2.23-14.4%

2022$2.61+15.4%

2021$2.26+30.4%

2020$1.73+3.5%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$14/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$19/yr+30%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$24/yr+69%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$14/yr $1/mo	$19/yr+30% $2/mo	$24/yr+69% $2/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.43% → 2.42% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 3.0× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 5.41% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · SAP

SAP SE

Technology · Software - Application

$205.95▼ 1.53% ($3.19)at close

After hours$206.00▲ 0.02%6:29 PM ET

52-week

$144.97$281.37

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $205.95, this model requires revenue to grow by 9.31%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 8.1%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.22 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

5.37%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 8.4%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

9.31%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$205.95

Estimated value / share

$155.16

Base scenario

This estimate is 24.66% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 8.4% · Ending margin 27.44% · Discount rate 9.35%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:01 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 4:27 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 23 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 57.6%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 23 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -20.94%Revenue (TTM): 6.43%FCF (TTM): 34.15%P/FCF: 28th pct

What changed

The stock fell 20.94% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.43% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 25.13% to 26.79%. Free cash flow grew 34.15% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 26.79%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

SAP SE, founded in Walldorf, Germany, in 1972, is a global provider of diverse software applications, technology, and services.

CEOChristian Klein

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Employees112,019

IPO dateSep 18, 1995

https://www.sap.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA19.95

Enterprise value$240.91B

Stock splits

Jul 28, 1998↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 4

+300%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth9.43%

Gross margin73.16%▼0.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin27.66%▲12.5ppvs FY2024

ROE18.19%▲2.3ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$237.25▲15.20%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 21, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.04 · Revenue est $11.53B

View

Dividends

$2.94/shareAnnual3yr growth streakSafe

SAP pays a dividend with a 1.43% dividend yield, 3 consecutive years of growth, growing at 5.41% annually, covered 3.0× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.43%

Annual Div / Share

$2.94

TTM $2.50

5yr CAGR

+5.41%

Doubles every ~13.2yr

Payout Ratio

36.21%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+9.61%

5yr CAGR

+5.41%

10yr CAGR

+8.46%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$2.94+11.8%

2025$2.63+10.0%

2024$2.39+7.1%

2023$2.23-14.4%

2022$2.61+15.4%

2021$2.26+30.4%

2020$1.73+3.5%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$14/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$19/yr+30%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$24/yr+69%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$14/yr $1/mo	$19/yr+30% $2/mo	$24/yr+69% $2/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.43% → 2.42% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 3.0× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 5.41% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.