NYSE · SW

Smurfit Westrock plc

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

$42.21▲ 0.02% ($0.01)at close

After hours$42.00▼ 0.50%7:51 PM ET

52-week

$32.73$52.65

Market cap

$22.14B

P/E

45.33

Volume

2.68M

Shares outstanding

524.52M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $42.21, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -3.36%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 17.73%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 21.09 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

17.73%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-3.36%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$42.21

Estimated value / share

$146.34

Base scenario

This estimate is 246.71% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.

Stage 1 17.73% · Stage 2 9.75% · Discount rate 7.61%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 22 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 911.2%. Latest capex is 2.4x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -6.76%Revenue (TTM): 1.85%FCF (TTM): 1,068.42%P/FCF: 57th pct

What changed

The stock fell 6.76% over the last year. Revenue grew 1.85% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 5.35% to 5.42%. Free cash flow grew 1,068.42% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved lower against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 5.42%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 1.85% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally.

CEOAnthony Paul J. Smurfit

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryPackaging & Containers

Employees97,000

IPO dateJun 17, 2008

https://www.smurfitwestrock.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA8.12

Enterprise value$35.32B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth1.15%

Gross margin17.93%▼0.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin5.35%▲2.4ppvs FY2024

ROE2.68%▼0.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$71.50▲69.39%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.62 · Revenue est $8.26B

View

Dividends

$0.90/shareSemi-annualAdequate

SW pays a dividend with a 2.14% dividend yield, covered 1.3× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

2.14%

Annual Div / Share

$0.90

TTM $1.77

5yr CAGR

-4.53%

Dividend has been cut

Payout Ratio

185.27%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+8.58%

5yr CAGR

-4.53%

10yr CAGR

+10.16%

Dividend Safety

3/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$1.72-8.3%

2024$1.88+21.9%

2023$1.54+14.5%

2022$1.35-2.8%

2021$1.38-36.3%

2020$2.17+93.0%

2019$1.13+2.7%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$21/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$21/yr

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$21/yr

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$21/yr $2/mo	$21/yr $2/mo	$21/yr $2/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

No strong strength signal stands out from the latest period pair.

Risks to Watch

High payout ratio

With 185.27% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.

Dividend has been reduced

The 5-year dividend CAGR of -4.53% is negative, indicating the payout has been cut over this period.

NYSE · SW

Smurfit Westrock plc

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

$42.21▲ 0.02% ($0.01)at close

After hours$42.00▼ 0.50%7:51 PM ET

52-week

$32.73$52.65

Market cap

$22.14B

P/E

45.33

Volume

2.68M

Shares outstanding

524.52M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $42.21, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -3.36%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 17.73%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 21.09 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

17.73%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-3.36%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$42.21

Estimated value / share

$146.34

Base scenario

This estimate is 246.71% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.

Stage 1 17.73% · Stage 2 9.75% · Discount rate 7.61%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 22 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 911.2%. Latest capex is 2.4x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -6.76%Revenue (TTM): 1.85%FCF (TTM): 1,068.42%P/FCF: 57th pct

What changed

The stock fell 6.76% over the last year. Revenue grew 1.85% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 5.35% to 5.42%. Free cash flow grew 1,068.42% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 5.42%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 1.85% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

CEOAnthony Paul J. Smurfit

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryPackaging & Containers

Employees97,000

IPO dateJun 17, 2008

https://www.smurfitwestrock.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA8.12

Enterprise value$35.32B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth1.15%

Gross margin17.93%▼0.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin5.35%▲2.4ppvs FY2024

ROE2.68%▼0.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$71.50▲69.39%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.62 · Revenue est $8.26B

View

Dividends

$0.90/shareSemi-annualAdequate

SW pays a dividend with a 2.14% dividend yield, covered 1.3× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

2.14%

Annual Div / Share

$0.90

TTM $1.77

5yr CAGR

-4.53%

Dividend has been cut

Payout Ratio

185.27%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+8.58%

5yr CAGR

-4.53%

10yr CAGR

+10.16%

Dividend Safety

3/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$1.72-8.3%

2024$1.88+21.9%

2023$1.54+14.5%

2022$1.35-2.8%

2021$1.38-36.3%

2020$2.17+93.0%

2019$1.13+2.7%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$21/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$21/yr

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$21/yr

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$21/yr $2/mo	$21/yr $2/mo	$21/yr $2/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

No strong strength signal stands out from the latest period pair.

Risks to Watch

High payout ratio

With 185.27% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.

Dividend has been reduced

The 5-year dividend CAGR of -4.53% is negative, indicating the payout has been cut over this period.