NYSE · SWK

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.

Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories

$89.05▲ 0.53% ($0.47)at close

After hours$89.18▲ 0.15%7:58 PM ET

52-week

$61.90$104.68

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $89.05, this model requires revenue to grow by 2.5%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by -0.25%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 2.74 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

0.8%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 0%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

2.5%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$89.05

Estimated value / share

$76.39

Base scenario

This estimate is 14.22% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-04

Year 1 growth 0% · Ending margin 9.06% · Discount rate 9.94%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 16, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-04
Data refreshed: Sep 17, 2026, 6:18 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but it is still too unstable and too short-lived to anchor even a normalized FCFF DCF. Use revenue and margin assumptions instead of compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 304.3%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? Only 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 14.45%Revenue (TTM): 0.57%FCF (TTM): 211.68%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock rose 14.45% over the last year. Revenue grew 0.57% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 7.69% to 8.34%. Free cash flow grew 211.68% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 0th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 8.34%. Revenue grew 0.57% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) is a global enterprise primarily engaged in two core business segments: Tools & Storage and Industrial operations.

CEOChristopher John Nelson

SectorIndustrials

IndustryManufacturing - Tools & Accessories

Employees43,500

IPO dateMar 17, 1980

https://www.stanleyblackanddecker.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA13.61

Enterprise value$17.3B

Stock splits

Jun 4, 1996↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 30, 1986↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 21, 1980↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 3, 1978↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth0.39%

Gross margin (FY2025)29.86%▼0.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)7.62%▼1.2ppvs FY2024

ROE6.89%▲2.4ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$92.00▲3.31%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.53 · Revenue est $3.73B

View

Dividends

$3.33/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 37yrAdequate

SWK pays a dividend with a 3.74% dividend yield, 37 consecutive years of growth, growing at 2.87% annually, covered 1.4× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

3.74%

Annual Div / Share

$3.33

5yr CAGR

+2.87%

Doubles every ~24.5yr

Payout Ratio

80.97%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+1.23%

5yr CAGR

+2.87%

10yr CAGR

+4.09%

Dividend Safety

3/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$3.33+1.2%

2025$3.29+1.2%

2024$3.25+1.2%

2023$3.21+1.3%

2022$3.17+9.7%

2021$2.89+4.3%

2020$2.77+3.7%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$37/yr

$3/mo

In 5 yrs

$43/yr+15%

$4/mo

In 10 yrs

$50/yr+33%

$4/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$37/yr $3/mo	$43/yr+15% $4/mo	$50/yr+33% $4/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 3.74% → 4.96% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

SWK has raised its dividend for 37 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Risks to Watch

High payout ratio

With 80.97% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.

NYSE · SWK

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.

Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories

$89.05▲ 0.53% ($0.47)at close

After hours$89.18▲ 0.15%7:58 PM ET

52-week

$61.90$104.68

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $89.05, this model requires revenue to grow by 2.5%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by -0.25%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 2.74 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

0.8%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 0%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

2.5%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$89.05

Estimated value / share

$76.39

Base scenario

This estimate is 14.22% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-04

Year 1 growth 0% · Ending margin 9.06% · Discount rate 9.94%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 16, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-04
Data refreshed: Sep 17, 2026, 6:18 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but it is still too unstable and too short-lived to anchor even a normalized FCFF DCF. Use revenue and margin assumptions instead of compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 304.3%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? Only 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 14.45%Revenue (TTM): 0.57%FCF (TTM): 211.68%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock rose 14.45% over the last year. Revenue grew 0.57% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 7.69% to 8.34%. Free cash flow grew 211.68% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 0th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) is a global enterprise primarily engaged in two core business segments: Tools & Storage and Industrial operations.

CEOChristopher John Nelson

SectorIndustrials

IndustryManufacturing - Tools & Accessories

Employees43,500

IPO dateMar 17, 1980

https://www.stanleyblackanddecker.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA13.61

Enterprise value$17.3B

Stock splits

Jun 4, 1996↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 30, 1986↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 21, 1980↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 3, 1978↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth0.39%

Gross margin (FY2025)29.86%▼0.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)7.62%▼1.2ppvs FY2024

ROE6.89%▲2.4ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$92.00▲3.31%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.53 · Revenue est $3.73B

View

Dividends

$3.33/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 37yrAdequate

SWK pays a dividend with a 3.74% dividend yield, 37 consecutive years of growth, growing at 2.87% annually, covered 1.4× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

3.74%

Annual Div / Share

$3.33

5yr CAGR

+2.87%

Doubles every ~24.5yr

Payout Ratio

80.97%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+1.23%

5yr CAGR

+2.87%

10yr CAGR

+4.09%

Dividend Safety

3/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$3.33+1.2%

2025$3.29+1.2%

2024$3.25+1.2%

2023$3.21+1.3%

2022$3.17+9.7%

2021$2.89+4.3%

2020$2.77+3.7%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$37/yr

$3/mo

In 5 yrs

$43/yr+15%

$4/mo

In 10 yrs

$50/yr+33%

$4/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$37/yr $3/mo	$43/yr+15% $4/mo	$50/yr+33% $4/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 3.74% → 4.96% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

SWK has raised its dividend for 37 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Risks to Watch

High payout ratio

With 80.97% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.