Reading the tape
NYSE: TGT
Target Corporation
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Market Cap
$57.97B
52w High
$133.10
52w Low
$83.44
P/E
15.65
Volume
1.29M
Outstanding Shares
452.86M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Momentum disconnected from fundamentalsModerate confidence
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
1Y Price: 36.1%Revenue (TTM): -1.68%FCF (TTM): -34.54%P/FCF: 83rd pct
What changed
The stock rose 36.1% over the last year. Revenue declined 1.68% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 5.22% to 4.88%. Free cash flow declined 34.54% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is rising despite deteriorating fundamentals and now sits at the 83rd percentile of its historical P/FCF range. This is a momentum-driven move — the market may be front-running a recovery that has not yet appeared in reported numbers.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin (currently 4.88%) would need to stabilize or improve to justify the move. Revenue is declining 1.68% — a trend reversal in the next report would be the key signal to watch. This read is wrong if the next period shows operating metrics turning the corner. At that point the price would be anticipating real improvement rather than running ahead of it.
Company profile
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States.
CEOMichael J. Fiddelke
SectorConsumer Defensive
IndustryDiscount Stores
Employees440,000
IPO dateOct 18, 1967
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA7.51
Enterprise value$62.7B
Stock splits
Jul 20, 2000↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
May 1, 1998↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Jul 18, 1996↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 3
Jul 25, 1983↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Dec 1, 1981↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth-1.49%
Gross margin27.93%▼0.98%vs FY2025
Operating margin4.88%▼6.50%vs FY2025
ROE22.92%▼17.83%vs FY2025
Analyst consensus
RatingHold
Target price$115.31▼9.93%
27
Buy
28
Hold
4
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 20, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $1.34 · Revenue est $24.35B
View
Dividends
$4.56/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 42yrEx-div May 13, 2026 · in 8dAdequateTGT pays a dividend with a 3.56% declared yield, 42 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.17% annually, covered 1.4× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
3.56%
Annual Div / Share
$4.56
5yr CAGR
+6.17%
Doubles every ~11.6yr
Payout Ratio
55.41%
Adequate
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+1.35%
5yr CAGR
+6.17%
10yr CAGR
+6.81%
Dividend Safety
6/10Adequate
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$4.56+1.8%
2025$4.48+2.3%
2023$4.38+5.8%
2022$4.14+22.5%
2021$3.38+25.2%
2020$2.70+3.1%
2019$2.62+3.1%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$36/yr
$3/mo
In 5 yrs
$48/yr+35%
$4/mo
In 10 yrs
$65/yr+82%
$5/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$36/yr $3/mo | $48/yr+35% $4/mo | $65/yr+82% $5/mo |
Yield-on-cost grows from 3.56% → 6.48% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Dividend Aristocrat
TGT has raised its dividend for 42 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 6.17% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.