NYSE · TPL

Texas Pacific Land Corporation

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$362.78▼ 1.10% ($4.02)today

As of 11:27 AM ET

52-week

$269.23$547.20

Market cap

$25.02B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $362.78, this model requires revenue to grow by 27.45%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 15.34%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 12.10 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

12.38%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 19.43%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

27.45%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$362.78

Estimated value / share

$123.60

Base scenario

This estimate is 65.93% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 19.43% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 8.36%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 22, 2026, 3:27 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 22, 2026, 3:28 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 30 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 66.0%. Latest capex is 3.4x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 30 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 31.2%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence

1Y Price: 24.21%Revenue (TTM): 20.82%FCF (TTM): 42.71%P/FCF: 70th pct

What changed

The stock rose 24.21% over the last year. Revenue grew 20.82% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 75.88% to 74.92%. Free cash flow grew 42.71% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (70th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 74.92% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 20.82% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates in two core business segments: land and resource management, and water services.

CEOTyler Glover

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Employees114

IPO dateMar 17, 1980

https://www.texaspacific.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA30.04

Enterprise value$19.69B

Stock splits

Dec 23, 2025↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Mar 27, 2024↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Jul 13, 2007↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 5

+400%

Mar 13, 1980↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Jul 1, 1975↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth31.2%

Gross margin (FY2025)85.46%▼4.4ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)74.19%▼2.2ppvs FY2024

ROE36.57%▼0.6ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$639.00▲76.14%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.35 · Revenue est $255M

View

Dividends

$0.60/shareAnnualSafe

TPL pays a dividend with a 0.17% dividend yield, covered 3.3× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

0.17%

Annual Div / Share

$0.60

TTM $2.33

5yr CAGR

-28.94%

Dividend has been cut

Payout Ratio

28.95%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-37.86%

5yr CAGR

-28.94%

10yr CAGR

+22.09%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$2.13-57.6%

2024$5.04+248.6%

2023$1.44-83.8%

2022$8.89-19.2%

2021$11.00-6.6%

2020$11.78+1666.7%

2019$0.67+48.1%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$2/yr

$0/mo

In 5 yrs

$2/yr

$0/mo

In 10 yrs

$2/yr

$0/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$2/yr $0/mo	$2/yr $0/mo	$2/yr $0/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 3.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

Dividend has been reduced

The 5-year dividend CAGR of -28.94% is negative, indicating the payout has been cut over this period.

NYSE · TPL

Texas Pacific Land Corporation

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$362.78▼ 1.10% ($4.02)today

As of 11:27 AM ET

52-week

$269.23$547.20

Market cap

$25.02B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $362.78, this model requires revenue to grow by 27.45%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 15.34%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 12.10 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

12.38%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 19.43%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

27.45%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$362.78

Estimated value / share

$123.60

Base scenario

This estimate is 65.93% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 19.43% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 8.36%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 22, 2026, 3:27 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 22, 2026, 3:28 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 30 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 66.0%. Latest capex is 3.4x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 30 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence

1Y Price: 24.21%Revenue (TTM): 20.82%FCF (TTM): 42.71%P/FCF: 70th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (70th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates in two core business segments: land and resource management, and water services.

CEOTyler Glover

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Employees114

IPO dateMar 17, 1980

https://www.texaspacific.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA30.04

Enterprise value$19.69B

Stock splits

Dec 23, 2025↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Mar 27, 2024↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Jul 13, 2007↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 5

+400%

Mar 13, 1980↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Jul 1, 1975↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth31.2%

Gross margin (FY2025)85.46%▼4.4ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)74.19%▼2.2ppvs FY2024

ROE36.57%▼0.6ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$639.00▲76.14%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.35 · Revenue est $255M

View

Dividends

$0.60/shareAnnualSafe

TPL pays a dividend with a 0.17% dividend yield, covered 3.3× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

0.17%

Annual Div / Share

$0.60

TTM $2.33

5yr CAGR

-28.94%

Dividend has been cut

Payout Ratio

28.95%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-37.86%

5yr CAGR

-28.94%

10yr CAGR

+22.09%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$2.13-57.6%

2024$5.04+248.6%

2023$1.44-83.8%

2022$8.89-19.2%

2021$11.00-6.6%

2020$11.78+1666.7%

2019$0.67+48.1%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$2/yr

$0/mo

In 5 yrs

$2/yr

$0/mo

In 10 yrs

$2/yr

$0/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$2/yr $0/mo	$2/yr $0/mo	$2/yr $0/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 3.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

Dividend has been reduced

The 5-year dividend CAGR of -28.94% is negative, indicating the payout has been cut over this period.