NYSE · TREX
Trex Company, Inc.
Basic Materials · Construction Materials
$44.21▲ 1.49% ($0.65)at close
As of 4:00 PM ET
Market cap
$4.59B
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: expensive. Price above all scenarios.
The price needs 31.3% revenue growth a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 1.4–4.4%.
Its past 4 years averaged −0.5% a year.
Value per share
Base case
$5.55
Price used $44.21 is 8.0× this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 5, 8:00 PM UTC
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $1.2B. The price needs $18.4B by 2036. Base case: $1.5B. At its recent pace: $1.2B. Bear to Bull: $1.4B to $1.9B.
Revenue today $1.2B. The price needs $18.4B by 2036. Base case: $1.5B. At its recent pace: $1.2B. Bear to Bull: $1.4B to $1.9B.
Revenue in 2036
today $1.2B
+$17Bmore than the Base case · 12.5×
Value per share · Base case
$5.55
Price $44.21
8.0× this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 2.0%
- Ending operating margin
- 20.2%
- Discount rate
- 12.9%
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 5, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 15.47% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.97% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 22.48% to 20.17%. Free cash flow grew 391.22% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 15th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.
What would invalidate this read
This read changes if operating margin (currently 20.17%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.
Return analysis
Company profile
Trex Company, Inc. is a leading U.S. manufacturer and distributor specializing in outdoor living products for both residential and commercial applications.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
12
Buy
19
Hold
3
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Nov 4, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $0.48 · Revenue est $314.12M
View
Institutional Sentiment
Trex Company, Inc. · TREX
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.