NYSE · TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Technology · Semiconductors

$428.03▼ 1.68% ($7.33)at close

After hours$427.30▼ 0.17%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$257.98$479.00

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $428.03, this model requires revenue to grow by 29.55%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 24.78%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 4.77 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

18.08%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 31.27%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

29.55%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$428.03

Estimated value / share

$212.55

Base scenario

This estimate is 50.34% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 31.27% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 12.48%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 1:13 AM UTC · cache

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 24 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 152.2%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 24 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 36.0%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence

1Y Price: 64.35%Revenue (TTM): 30.85%FCF (TTM): 27.55%P/FCF: 75th pct

What changed

The stock rose 64.35% over the last year. Revenue grew 30.85% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 48.72% to 56.03%. Free cash flow grew 27.55% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (75th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 56.03% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 30.85% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the manufacturing, packaging, meticulous testing, and worldwide distribution of integrated circuits and other crucial semiconductor components.

CEOChe Chia Wei

SectorTechnology

IndustrySemiconductors

Employees65,152

IPO dateOct 9, 1997

https://www.tsmc.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA17.32

Enterprise value$47.67T

Stock splits

Jun 20, 2006↑ Forward

Every 100 shares became 103

+3%

Jun 13, 2005↑ Forward

Every 20 shares became 21

+5%

Jun 14, 2004↑ Forward

Every 50 shares became 57

+14%

Jul 7, 2003↑ Forward

Every 25 shares became 27

+8%

Jun 19, 2002↑ Forward

Every 10 shares became 11

+10%

Jun 26, 2001↑ Forward

Every 5 shares became 7

+40%

May 15, 2000↑ Forward

Every 25 shares became 32

+28%

Aug 16, 1999↑ Forward

Every 100 shares became 123

+23%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth36.05%

Gross margin64.23%▲3.8ppvs FY2024

Operating margin56.04%▲5.1ppvs FY2024

ROE40.71%▲4.5ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$578.43▲35.14%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 15, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $4.45 · Revenue est $45.11B

View

Dividends

$4.07/shareQuarterly4yr growth streakEx-div Sep 16, 2026 · in 5dSafe

TSM pays a dividend with a 0.95% declared yield, 4 consecutive years of growth, growing at 22.43% annually, covered 2.3× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

0.95%

Annual Div / Share

$4.07

TTM $110.00

5yr CAGR

+22.43%

Doubles every ~3.4yr

Payout Ratio

23.76%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+41%

5yr CAGR

+22.43%

10yr CAGR

+5.69%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$4.07+47.0%

2025$2.77+50.7%

2024$1.84+26.5%

2023$1.45+1.0%

2022$1.44-2.9%

2021$1.48+8.9%

2020$1.36-48.5%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$10/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$17/yr+76%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$30/yr+211%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$10/yr $1/mo	$17/yr+76% $1/mo	$30/yr+211% $2/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.95% → 2.95% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 22.43% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Technology · Semiconductors

$428.03▼ 1.68% ($7.33)at close

After hours$427.30▼ 0.17%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$257.98$479.00

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $428.03, this model requires revenue to grow by 29.55%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 24.78%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 4.77 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

18.08%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 31.27%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

29.55%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$428.03

Estimated value / share

$212.55

Base scenario

This estimate is 50.34% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 31.27% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 12.48%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 1:13 AM UTC · cache

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 24 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 152.2%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 24 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence

1Y Price: 64.35%Revenue (TTM): 30.85%FCF (TTM): 27.55%P/FCF: 75th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (75th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

CEOChe Chia Wei

SectorTechnology

IndustrySemiconductors

Employees65,152

IPO dateOct 9, 1997

https://www.tsmc.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA17.32

Enterprise value$47.67T

Stock splits

Jun 20, 2006↑ Forward

Every 100 shares became 103

+3%

Jun 13, 2005↑ Forward

Every 20 shares became 21

+5%

Jun 14, 2004↑ Forward

Every 50 shares became 57

+14%

Jul 7, 2003↑ Forward

Every 25 shares became 27

+8%

Jun 19, 2002↑ Forward

Every 10 shares became 11

+10%

Jun 26, 2001↑ Forward

Every 5 shares became 7

+40%

May 15, 2000↑ Forward

Every 25 shares became 32

+28%

Aug 16, 1999↑ Forward

Every 100 shares became 123

+23%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth36.05%

Gross margin64.23%▲3.8ppvs FY2024

Operating margin56.04%▲5.1ppvs FY2024

ROE40.71%▲4.5ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$578.43▲35.14%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 15, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $4.45 · Revenue est $45.11B

View

Dividends

$4.07/shareQuarterly4yr growth streakEx-div Sep 16, 2026 · in 5dSafe

TSM pays a dividend with a 0.95% declared yield, 4 consecutive years of growth, growing at 22.43% annually, covered 2.3× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

0.95%

Annual Div / Share

$4.07

TTM $110.00

5yr CAGR

+22.43%

Doubles every ~3.4yr

Payout Ratio

23.76%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+41%

5yr CAGR

+22.43%

10yr CAGR

+5.69%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$4.07+47.0%

2025$2.77+50.7%

2024$1.84+26.5%

2023$1.45+1.0%

2022$1.44-2.9%

2021$1.48+8.9%

2020$1.36-48.5%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$10/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$17/yr+76%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$30/yr+211%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$10/yr $1/mo	$17/yr+76% $1/mo	$30/yr+211% $2/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.95% → 2.95% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 22.43% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.