NASDAQ · ULTA

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

$535.63▼ 1.15% ($6.23)at close

Pre-market$535.70▲ 0.01%4:00 AM ET

52-week

$443.60$714.97

Market cap

$23.03B

P/E

19.26

Volume

620.38K

Shares outstanding

42.99M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $535.63, this model requires revenue to grow by 8.38%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 9.47%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.08 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

5.97%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 9.35%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

8.38%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$535.63

Estimated value / share

$455.34

Base scenario

This estimate is 14.99% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-08-01

Year 1 growth 9.35% · Ending margin 12.56% · Discount rate 9.43%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-08-01
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 8:30 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 17 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 46.8%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 17 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? 10.0-year FCFF CAGR of 25.7% exceeds the 20.0% sustainability threshold — compounding current cash flows at that historical rate would produce an unreliable forward projection.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 3.91%Revenue (TTM): 11.16%FCF (TTM): 12.07%P/FCF: 27th pct

What changed

The stock rose 3.91% over the last year. Revenue grew 11.16% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 13.69% to 12.56%. Free cash flow grew 12.07% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved higher against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 12.56%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 11.16% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States.

CEOKecia L. Steelman

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Employees65,000

IPO dateOct 25, 2007

https://www.ulta.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA16.79

Enterprise value$30.79B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth8.87%

Gross margin39.32%▲0.3ppvs FY2024

Operating margin12.56%▼1.5ppvs FY2024

ROE46.12%▲2.5ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$632.07▲18.00%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Dec 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $5.60 · Revenue est $2.99B

View