NYSE · UNP

Union Pacific Corporation

Industrials · Railroads

$285.78▲ 0.37% ($1.04)at close

As of 4:00 PM ET

52-week

$213.89$315.99

Market cap

$169.77B

P/E

23.16

Volume

2.29M

Shares outstanding

594.08M

Corporate event

Recent acquisition on record

Event dated Sep 16, 2025

UNION PACIFIC CORP has a recent acquisition record for Norfolk Southern Corporation. Reported results and multi-period comparisons may mix pre- and post-transaction periods, so review the reference filing before leaning on valuation outputs.

Open reference filing

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $285.78, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 14.54%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 10.49%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 4.06 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

10.49%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

14.54%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$285.78

Estimated value / share

$234.65

Base scenario

This estimate is 17.89% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~2% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

Stage 1 10.49% · Stage 2 5.77% · Discount rate 9.18%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 2:06 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, stable, long-lived, and the business looks mature enough that a direct FCFF DCF can use historical cash flow as the anchor.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 27 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 20.9%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 27 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue growth and margin behavior look mature enough for direct FCFF compounding.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inModerate confidence

1Y Price: 32.8%Revenue (TTM): 4.17%FCF (TTM): 3.88%P/FCF: 78th pct

What changed

The stock rose 32.8% over the last year. Revenue grew 4.17% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 40.27% to 39.93%. Free cash flow grew 3.88% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (78th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 39.93% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 4.17% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company.

CEOVincenzo James Vena

SectorIndustrials

IndustryRailroads

Employees28,716

IPO dateJan 2, 1980

https://www.up.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA12.94

Enterprise value$167.6B

Stock splits

Jun 9, 2014↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

May 29, 2008↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 16, 1996↑ Forward

Every 1681 shares became 2500

+49%

Oct 2, 1991↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

May 12, 1980↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Feb 16, 1977↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth11.54%

Gross margin45.53%▲13.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin39.93%▲0.1ppvs FY2024

ROE39.7%▼0.7ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$330.50▲15.65%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 22, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.43 · Revenue est $6.95B

View

Dividends

$5.56/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 27yrSafe

UNP pays a dividend with a 1.95% dividend yield, 27 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.39% annually, covered 1.7× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.95%

Annual Div / Share

$5.56

5yr CAGR

+6.39%

Doubles every ~11.2yr

Payout Ratio

44.71%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+2.26%

5yr CAGR

+6.39%

10yr CAGR

+9.71%

Dividend Safety

8/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$5.56+3.0%

2025$5.40+3.1%

2024$5.24+0.8%

2023$5.20+4.8%

2022$4.96+21.6%

2021$4.08+5.2%

2020$3.88+9.9%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$19/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$27/yr+36%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$36/yr+86%

$3/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$19/yr $2/mo	$27/yr+36% $2/mo	$36/yr+86% $3/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.95% → 3.61% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

UNP has raised its dividend for 27 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 1.7× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 6.39% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · UNP

Union Pacific Corporation

Industrials · Railroads

$285.78▲ 0.37% ($1.04)at close

As of 4:00 PM ET

52-week

$213.89$315.99

Market cap

$169.77B

P/E

23.16

Volume

2.29M

Shares outstanding

594.08M

Corporate event

Recent acquisition on record

Event dated Sep 16, 2025

Open reference filing

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $285.78, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 14.54%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 10.49%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 4.06 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

10.49%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

14.54%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$285.78

Estimated value / share

$234.65

Base scenario

This estimate is 17.89% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Stage 1 10.49% · Stage 2 5.77% · Discount rate 9.18%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 2:06 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, stable, long-lived, and the business looks mature enough that a direct FCFF DCF can use historical cash flow as the anchor.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 27 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 20.9%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 27 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue growth and margin behavior look mature enough for direct FCFF compounding.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inModerate confidence

1Y Price: 32.8%Revenue (TTM): 4.17%FCF (TTM): 3.88%P/FCF: 78th pct

What changed

The stock rose 32.8% over the last year. Revenue grew 4.17% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 40.27% to 39.93%. Free cash flow grew 3.88% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (78th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company.

CEOVincenzo James Vena

SectorIndustrials

IndustryRailroads

Employees28,716

IPO dateJan 2, 1980

https://www.up.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA12.94

Enterprise value$167.6B

Stock splits

Jun 9, 2014↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

May 29, 2008↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 16, 1996↑ Forward

Every 1681 shares became 2500

+49%

Oct 2, 1991↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

May 12, 1980↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Feb 16, 1977↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth11.54%

Gross margin45.53%▲13.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin39.93%▲0.1ppvs FY2024

ROE39.7%▼0.7ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$330.50▲15.65%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 22, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.43 · Revenue est $6.95B

View

Dividends

$5.56/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 27yrSafe

UNP pays a dividend with a 1.95% dividend yield, 27 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.39% annually, covered 1.7× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.95%

Annual Div / Share

$5.56

5yr CAGR

+6.39%

Doubles every ~11.2yr

Payout Ratio

44.71%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+2.26%

5yr CAGR

+6.39%

10yr CAGR

+9.71%

Dividend Safety

8/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$5.56+3.0%

2025$5.40+3.1%

2024$5.24+0.8%

2023$5.20+4.8%

2022$4.96+21.6%

2021$4.08+5.2%

2020$3.88+9.9%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$19/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$27/yr+36%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$36/yr+86%

$3/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$19/yr $2/mo	$27/yr+36% $2/mo	$36/yr+86% $3/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.95% → 3.61% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

UNP has raised its dividend for 27 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 1.7× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 6.39% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.