NYSE · VIST
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$70.45▼ 1.58% ($1.13)at close
After hours$70.55▲ 0.14%6:14 PM ET
Market cap
$7.35B
P/E
9.96
EPS (TTM)
$7.07
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: cheap. Price below all scenarios.
The price holds with revenue shrinking 4.5% a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 14.1–24.4%.
That's below its past 4-year pace of 39.6%.
Value per share
Base case
$706.45
Price used $70.45 is 90% below this
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2026 · Price Oct 30, 8:00 PM UTC
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $4.1B. The price needs $2.6B by 2036. Base case: $24.7B. At its recent pace: $115B. Bear to Bull: $15.3B to $36.6B.
Revenue today $4.1B. The price needs $2.6B by 2036. Base case: $24.7B. At its recent pace: $115B. Bear to Bull: $15.3B to $36.6B.
Revenue in 2036
today $4.1B
−$22.1Bless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$706.45
Price $70.45
90% below this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 19.6%
- Ending operating margin
- 30.0%
- Discount rate
- 6.7%
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2026 · Price Oct 30, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock rose 49.29% over the last year. Revenue grew 84.78% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 52.44% to 37.54%. Free cash flow grew 173.44% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (78th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 37.54% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 84.78% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Return analysis
Company profile
Headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., an entity established in 2017, concentrates on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas throughout Latin America through its various subsidiaries.
Market multiples
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
6
Buy
0
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.
Next report
Feb 24, 2027
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.69 · Revenue est $1.3B
Same quarter, year over year
FY26 YTD +92.6%Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q3 combined $5.43 vs $2.82 · all 3 quarters up
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY total
FY26
—
FY25
FY24
FY23
—
—
—
—
Fiscal year totals
- FY25
- $3.62
- -21.9%
- FY24
- $4.63
- —
Q3 FY26
Reported Oct 28, 2026 · Latest
HoverTap a cell to inspect
Actual
$2.16
Estimate
$2.79
Year over year
+45.9%
Vs prior quarter
-9.2%
Institutional Sentiment
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. · VIST
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.