NYSE · VIST
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$74.26▼ 5.23% ($4.10)at close
After hours$74.90▲ 0.86%·7:58 PM ET
Market cap
$7.74B
P/E
10.10
Volume
916.08K
Shares outstanding
104.27M
To support a price of $74.26, this model requires revenue to grow by -0.84%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.
Historical revenue grew by 39.56%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 40.40 percentage points lower.
Selected forecast · Base scenario
19.61%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth
Year 1 growth: 40%
Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins
-0.84%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth
Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.
Price used
$74.26
Estimated value / share
$530.54
Base scenario
This estimate is 614.44% above the price used.
Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.
Year 1 growth 40% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 7.22%
Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.
Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.
There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.
Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.
VIST
Price vs Fundamentals
The stock rose 102.62% over the last year. Revenue grew 77.79% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 41.33% to 42.89%. Free cash flow grew 118.7% over the trailing twelve months.
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (100th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
Operating margin is at 42.89% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 77.79% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Performance
Company profile
Headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., an entity established in 2017, concentrates on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas throughout Latin America through its various subsidiaries.
Market multiples
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
6
Buy
0
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Oct 28, 2026
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.70 · Revenue est $1.08B
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