NYSE · VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

$385.43▼ 0.91% ($3.52)at close

After hours$386.25▲ 0.21%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$155.29$393.54

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $385.43, this model requires revenue to grow by 0.08%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 1.86%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.77 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

3.02%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 4.73%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

0.08%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$385.43

Estimated value / share

$486.63

Base scenario

This estimate is 26.26% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 4.73% · Ending margin 6% · Discount rate 7.68%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 1:26 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 137.1%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 22.6%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence

1Y Price: 143.17%Revenue (TTM): 7.39%FCF (TTM): 202.9%P/FCF: 62nd pct

What changed

The stock rose 143.17% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.39% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 0.77% to 7.53%. Free cash flow grew 202.9% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (62nd percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 7.53% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 7.39% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Valero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories.

CEOR. Lane Riggs

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Employees9,785

IPO dateJan 4, 1982

https://www.valero.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA8.53

Enterprise value$57.32B

Stock splits

May 2, 2013↑ Forward

Every 500 shares became 547

+9%

Dec 16, 2005↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 8, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth22.62%

Gross margin11.33%▲0.7ppvs FY2024

Operating margin7.53%▲0.6ppvs FY2024

ROE29.39%▲19.7ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$340.20▼11.73%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 22, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $17.28 · Revenue est $39.29B

View

Dividends

$4.73/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 15yrSafe

VLO pays a dividend with a 1.23% dividend yield, 15 consecutive years of growth, growing at 3.83% annually, covered 3.6× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.23%

Annual Div / Share

$4.73

5yr CAGR

+3.83%

Doubles every ~18.5yr

Payout Ratio

19.54%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+5.4%

5yr CAGR

+3.83%

10yr CAGR

+7.48%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$4.73+6.1%

2025$4.46+5.4%

2024$4.23+4.7%

2023$4.04+3.1%

2022$3.92+0.0%

2021$3.92+2.1%

2020$3.84+9.7%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$12/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$15/yr+21%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$18/yr+46%

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$12/yr $1/mo	$15/yr+21% $1/mo	$18/yr+46% $1/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.23% → 1.79% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

VLO has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 3.6× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

$385.43▼ 0.91% ($3.52)at close

After hours$386.25▲ 0.21%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$155.29$393.54

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $385.43, this model requires revenue to grow by 0.08%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 1.86%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.77 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

3.02%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 4.73%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

0.08%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$385.43

Estimated value / share

$486.63

Base scenario

This estimate is 26.26% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 4.73% · Ending margin 6% · Discount rate 7.68%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 1:26 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 137.1%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence

1Y Price: 143.17%Revenue (TTM): 7.39%FCF (TTM): 202.9%P/FCF: 62nd pct

What changed

The stock rose 143.17% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.39% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 0.77% to 7.53%. Free cash flow grew 202.9% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (62nd percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

CEOR. Lane Riggs

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Employees9,785

IPO dateJan 4, 1982

https://www.valero.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA8.53

Enterprise value$57.32B

Stock splits

May 2, 2013↑ Forward

Every 500 shares became 547

+9%

Dec 16, 2005↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 8, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth22.62%

Gross margin11.33%▲0.7ppvs FY2024

Operating margin7.53%▲0.6ppvs FY2024

ROE29.39%▲19.7ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$340.20▼11.73%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 22, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $17.28 · Revenue est $39.29B

View

Dividends

$4.73/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 15yrSafe

VLO pays a dividend with a 1.23% dividend yield, 15 consecutive years of growth, growing at 3.83% annually, covered 3.6× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.23%

Annual Div / Share

$4.73

5yr CAGR

+3.83%

Doubles every ~18.5yr

Payout Ratio

19.54%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+5.4%

5yr CAGR

+3.83%

10yr CAGR

+7.48%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$4.73+6.1%

2025$4.46+5.4%

2024$4.23+4.7%

2023$4.04+3.1%

2022$3.92+0.0%

2021$3.92+2.1%

2020$3.84+9.7%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$12/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$15/yr+21%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$18/yr+46%

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$12/yr $1/mo	$15/yr+21% $1/mo	$18/yr+46% $1/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.23% → 1.79% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

VLO has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 3.6× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.