NASDAQ · VRRM

Verra Mobility Corporation

Technology · Information Technology Services

$3.65▼ 2.14% ($0.08)at close

After hours$3.66▲ 0.27%7:58 PM ET

52-week

$3.40$25.45

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $3.65, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -3.74%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 10.72%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 14.47 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

10.72%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-3.74%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$3.65

Estimated value / share

$13.17

Base scenario

This estimate is 260.88% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.

Working capital change smoothed: single-period ΔOWC exceeded ±5% of revenue and was capped to reduce timing noise.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Market beta (0.38) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~5% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.

Stage 1 10.72% · Stage 2 5.9% · Discount rate 6.13%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 11 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 115.0%. Latest capex is 2.3x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence

1Y Price: -84.95%Revenue (TTM): 11.1%FCF (TTM): -48.75%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock fell 84.95% over the last year. Revenue grew 11.1% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 15.57% to 13.59%. Free cash flow declined 48.75% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/FCF, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin stands at 13.59%. Free cash flow fell 48.75% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Verra Mobility Corporation is a company dedicated to delivering innovative smart mobility technology solutions and associated services across the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe.

CEOJonathan Keyser

SectorTechnology

IndustryInformation Technology Services

Employees1,895

IPO dateMar 24, 2017

https://www.verramobility.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA9.41

Enterprise value$3.54B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth11.68%

Gross margin96.07%▼0.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin13.59%▲8.9ppvs FY2024

ROE15.38%▼33.6ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$6.50▲78.08%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 28, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.26 · Revenue est $241.23M

View