NASDAQ · VRRM
Verra Mobility Corporation
Technology · Information Technology Services
$3.09▼ 1.59% ($0.05)at close
After hours$3.12▲ 0.94%7:54 PM ET
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price between Bear and Base.
The price holds with free cash flow shrinking 5.3% a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −4.7–25.0%.
That's below its past 10-year pace of 10.3%.
Value per share
Base case
$12.68
Price used $3.09 is 76% below this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC
The trailing effective tax rate was 53.8%, outside the 5.0% to 40.0% range a rate held for ten years and beyond should sit in, so the 21.0% default is used for NOPAT and the WACC tax shield.
7 more notes
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.
Working capital change smoothed: single-period ΔOWC exceeded ±5% of revenue and was capped to reduce timing noise.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Market beta (0.42) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~5% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $102M. The price needs $102M by 2036. Base case: $220M. At its recent pace: $273M. Bear to Bull: $95.4M to $594M.
Free cash flow today $102M. The price needs $102M by 2036. Base case: $220M. At its recent pace: $273M. Bear to Bull: $95.4M to $594M.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $102M
−$117Mless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$12.68
Price $3.09
76% below this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 10.3%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 5.7%
- Discount rate
- 8.4%
The trailing effective tax rate was 53.8%, outside the 5.0% to 40.0% range a rate held for ten years and beyond should sit in, so the 21.0% default is used for NOPAT and the WACC tax shield.
7 more notes
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.
Working capital change smoothed: single-period ΔOWC exceeded ±5% of revenue and was capped to reduce timing noise.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Market beta (0.42) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~5% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 87.47% over the last year. Revenue grew 11.1% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 15.57% to 13.59%. Free cash flow declined 48.75% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/FCF, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin stands at 13.59%. Free cash flow fell 48.75% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.
Return analysis
Company profile
Verra Mobility Corporation is a company dedicated to delivering innovative smart mobility technology solutions and associated services across the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe.
Market multiples
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
4
Buy
8
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.
Next report
Oct 30, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $0.26 · Revenue est $240.6M
Same quarter, year over year
FY26 YTD -1.6%Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q2 combined $0.63 vs $0.64 · 1 of 2 quarters up
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY total
FY26
—
—
FY25
FY24
FY23
—
—
—
Fiscal year totals
- FY25
- $1.31
- +6.5%
- FY24
- $1.23
- —
Q2 FY26
Reported Aug 5, 2026 · Latest
HoverTap a cell to inspect
Actual
$0.38
Estimate
$0.33
Year over year
+11.8%
Vs prior quarter
+52.0%
Institutional Sentiment
Verra Mobility Corporation · VRRM
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.