Reading the tape
NYSE: VST
Vistra Corp.
Utilities · Independent Power Producers
Market Cap
$52.57B
52w High
$219.82
52w Low
$133.73
P/E
55.89
Volume
2.71M
Outstanding Shares
338.55M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Momentum disconnected from fundamentalsModerate confidence
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
1Y Price: 13.1%Revenue (TTM): -13.66%FCF (TTM): -72.81%P/E: 86th pct
What changed
The stock rose 13.1% over the last year. Revenue declined 13.66% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 32.14% to 5.83%. Free cash flow declined 72.81% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is rising despite deteriorating fundamentals and now sits at the 86th percentile of its historical P/E range. This is a momentum-driven move — the market may be front-running a recovery that has not yet appeared in reported numbers.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin (currently 5.83%) would need to stabilize or improve to justify the move. Revenue is declining 13.66% — a trend reversal in the next report would be the key signal to watch. This read is wrong if the next period shows operating metrics turning the corner. At that point the price would be anticipating real improvement rather than running ahead of it.
Company profile
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company.
CEOJames A. Burke
SectorUtilities
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Employees6,850
IPO dateOct 5, 2016
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA14.17
Enterprise value$74.4B
Stock splits
Aug 9, 2013↓ Reverse
Every 50 shares became 1
Nov 1, 2004↓ Reverse
Every 10 shares became 1
Feb 27, 2003↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 3
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth-68.24%
Gross margin15.89%▼55.86%vs FY2024
Operating margin5.83%▼75.53%vs FY2024
ROE18.47%▼61.30%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingBuy
Target price$227.60▲46.57%
19
Buy
2
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 7, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $1.32 · Revenue est $5.22B
View
Dividends
$0.91/shareQuarterly6yr growth streakAt RiskVST pays a dividend with a 0.59% declared yield, 6 consecutive years of growth, growing at 9.83% annually, covered 0.3× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
0.59%
Annual Div / Share
$0.91
5yr CAGR
+9.83%
Doubles every ~7.4yr
Payout Ratio
52.75%
At Risk
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+5.38%
5yr CAGR
+9.83%
Dividend Safety
4/10At Risk
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$0.91+2.4%
2025$0.89+4.5%
2024$0.85+9.4%
2023$0.78+20.3%
2022$0.65+13.5%
2021$0.57+9.6%
2020$0.52—
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$6/yr
$0/mo
In 5 yrs
$9/yr+60%
$1/mo
In 10 yrs
$15/yr+155%
$1/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$6/yr $0/mo | $9/yr+60% $1/mo | $15/yr+155% $1/mo |
Yield-on-cost grows from 0.59% → 1.5% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 9.83% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
Dividend exceeds free cash flow
Free cash flow covers only 0.26× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.