NASDAQ · WING

Wingstop Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$104.08▲ 0.31% ($0.32)at close

After hours$103.70▼ 0.37%7:49 PM ET

52-week

$100.13$302.80

Market cap

$2.84B

P/E

24.37

EPS (TTM)

$4.27

Next earnings

Nov 3, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $104.08, this model requires revenue to grow by 16.06%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 25.32%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 9.26 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

12.84%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 20.15%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

16.06%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$104.08

Estimated value / share

$77.01

Base scenario

This estimate is 26.01% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-27

Year 1 growth 20.15% · Ending margin 29.8% · Discount rate 11.06%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-27
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 6:24 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 14 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 206.4%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 14 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? 10.0-year FCFF CAGR of 22.2% exceeds the 20.0% sustainability threshold — compounding current cash flows at that historical rate would produce an unreliable forward projection.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -59.32%Revenue (TTM): 7.61%FCF (TTM): 130.28%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock fell 59.32% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.61% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 26.13% to 28.69%. Free cash flow grew 130.28% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 0th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 28.69%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Wingstop Inc., together with its affiliated companies, manages and licenses a network of restaurants known by the Wingstop brand.

CEOMichael J. Skipworth

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryRestaurants

Employees1,367

IPO dateJun 12, 2015

https://www.wingstop.ca

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA27.65

Enterprise value$8.24B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth6.44%

Gross margin (FY2025)82.62%▲34.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)27.58%▲1.1ppvs FY2024

ROEN/A

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$205.07▲97.03%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.05 · Revenue est $194.53M

View

Dividends

$1.23/shareQuarterlySafe

WING pays a dividend with a 1.18% dividend yield, covered 3.3× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.18%

Annual Div / Share

$1.23

5yr CAGR

-27%

Dividend has been cut

Payout Ratio

28.71%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-37.72%

5yr CAGR

-27%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$1.14+16.3%

2024$0.98+19.5%

2023$0.82-82.6%

2022$4.72+661.3%

2021$0.62-88.7%

2020$5.50+1275.0%

2019$0.40-93.9%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$12/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$12/yr

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$12/yr

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$12/yr $1/mo	$12/yr $1/mo	$12/yr $1/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 3.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

Dividend has been reduced

The 5-year dividend CAGR of -27% is negative, indicating the payout has been cut over this period.

NASDAQ · WING

Wingstop Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$104.08▲ 0.31% ($0.32)at close

After hours$103.70▼ 0.37%7:49 PM ET

52-week

$100.13$302.80

Market cap

$2.84B

P/E

24.37

EPS (TTM)

$4.27

Next earnings

Nov 3, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $104.08, this model requires revenue to grow by 16.06%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 25.32%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 9.26 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

12.84%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 20.15%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

16.06%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$104.08

Estimated value / share

$77.01

Base scenario

This estimate is 26.01% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-27

Year 1 growth 20.15% · Ending margin 29.8% · Discount rate 11.06%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-27
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 6:24 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 14 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 206.4%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 14 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -59.32%Revenue (TTM): 7.61%FCF (TTM): 130.28%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 28.69%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Wingstop Inc., together with its affiliated companies, manages and licenses a network of restaurants known by the Wingstop brand.

CEOMichael J. Skipworth

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryRestaurants

Employees1,367

IPO dateJun 12, 2015

https://www.wingstop.ca

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA27.65

Enterprise value$8.24B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth6.44%

Gross margin (FY2025)82.62%▲34.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)27.58%▲1.1ppvs FY2024

ROEN/A

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$205.07▲97.03%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.05 · Revenue est $194.53M

View

Dividends

$1.23/shareQuarterlySafe

WING pays a dividend with a 1.18% dividend yield, covered 3.3× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.18%

Annual Div / Share

$1.23

5yr CAGR

-27%

Dividend has been cut

Payout Ratio

28.71%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-37.72%

5yr CAGR

-27%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$1.14+16.3%

2024$0.98+19.5%

2023$0.82-82.6%

2022$4.72+661.3%

2021$0.62-88.7%

2020$5.50+1275.0%

2019$0.40-93.9%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$12/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$12/yr

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$12/yr

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$12/yr $1/mo	$12/yr $1/mo	$12/yr $1/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 3.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

Dividend has been reduced

The 5-year dividend CAGR of -27% is negative, indicating the payout has been cut over this period.