NYSE · WM

Waste Management, Inc.

Industrials · Waste Management

$214.77▼ 0.77% ($1.67)at close

After hours$215.00▲ 0.11%7:51 PM ET

52-week

$194.11$248.13

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $214.77, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 7.39%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 9.68%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 2.30 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

9.68%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

7.39%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$214.77

Estimated value / share

$243.37

Base scenario

This estimate is 13.31% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Market beta (0.43) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.

Stage 1 9.68% · Stage 2 5.33% · Discount rate 6.72%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 1:07 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 26 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 93.4%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -1.34%Revenue (TTM): 7.17%FCF (TTM): 65.19%P/FCF: 43rd pct

What changed

The stock fell 1.34% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.17% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 17.88% to 18.54%. Free cash flow grew 65.19% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved lower against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 18.54%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 7.17% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) functions as a premier provider of environmental waste solutions across North America, serving a diverse client base that includes residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers.

CEOJames C. Fish Jr.

SectorIndustrials

IndustryWaste Management

Employees60,500

IPO dateJun 22, 1988

https://www.wm.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA15.44

Enterprise value$111.18B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth3.95%

Gross margin35.04%0.0ppvs FY2024

Operating margin18.54%▼0.5ppvs FY2024

ROE29.83%▲0.1ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$244.00▲13.61%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 26, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.18 · Revenue est $6.8B

View

Dividends

$3.66/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 23yrEx-div Sep 11, 2026 · in 1dSafe

WM pays a dividend with a 1.7% declared yield, 23 consecutive years of growth, growing at 10.02% annually, covered 2.1× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

1.7%

Annual Div / Share

$3.66

TTM $3.54

5yr CAGR

+10.02%

Doubles every ~7.3yr

Payout Ratio

50.09%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+10%

5yr CAGR

+10.02%

10yr CAGR

+8.53%

Dividend Safety

9/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$3.66+13.5%

2025$3.23+9.3%

2024$2.95+7.3%

2023$2.75+8.9%

2022$2.52+11.2%

2021$2.27+5.7%

2020$2.15+7.2%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$17/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$27/yr+61%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$44/yr+160%

$4/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$17/yr $1/mo	$27/yr+61% $2/mo	$44/yr+160% $4/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.7% → 4.43% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

WM has raised its dividend for 23 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.1× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 10.02% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · WM

Waste Management, Inc.

Industrials · Waste Management

$214.77▼ 0.77% ($1.67)at close

After hours$215.00▲ 0.11%7:51 PM ET

52-week

$194.11$248.13

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $214.77, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 7.39%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 9.68%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 2.30 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

9.68%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

7.39%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$214.77

Estimated value / share

$243.37

Base scenario

This estimate is 13.31% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Market beta (0.43) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.

Stage 1 9.68% · Stage 2 5.33% · Discount rate 6.72%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 1:07 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 26 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 93.4%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -1.34%Revenue (TTM): 7.17%FCF (TTM): 65.19%P/FCF: 43rd pct

What changed

The stock fell 1.34% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.17% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 17.88% to 18.54%. Free cash flow grew 65.19% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 18.54%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 7.17% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

CEOJames C. Fish Jr.

SectorIndustrials

IndustryWaste Management

Employees60,500

IPO dateJun 22, 1988

https://www.wm.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA15.44

Enterprise value$111.18B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth3.95%

Gross margin35.04%0.0ppvs FY2024

Operating margin18.54%▼0.5ppvs FY2024

ROE29.83%▲0.1ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$244.00▲13.61%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 26, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.18 · Revenue est $6.8B

View

Dividends

$3.66/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 23yrEx-div Sep 11, 2026 · in 1dSafe

WM pays a dividend with a 1.7% declared yield, 23 consecutive years of growth, growing at 10.02% annually, covered 2.1× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

1.7%

Annual Div / Share

$3.66

TTM $3.54

5yr CAGR

+10.02%

Doubles every ~7.3yr

Payout Ratio

50.09%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+10%

5yr CAGR

+10.02%

10yr CAGR

+8.53%

Dividend Safety

9/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$3.66+13.5%

2025$3.23+9.3%

2024$2.95+7.3%

2023$2.75+8.9%

2022$2.52+11.2%

2021$2.27+5.7%

2020$2.15+7.2%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$17/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$27/yr+61%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$44/yr+160%

$4/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$17/yr $1/mo	$27/yr+61% $2/mo	$44/yr+160% $4/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.7% → 4.43% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

WM has raised its dividend for 23 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.1× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 10.02% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.