NASDAQ · WMT

Walmart Inc.

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

$105.73▼ 0.09% ($0.10)at close

Pre-market$106.39▲ 0.62%8:29 AM ET

52-week

$98.88$135.16

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $105.73, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 22.53%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by -4.42%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 26.95 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

-4.42%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

22.53%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$105.73

Estimated value / share

$29.75

Base scenario

This estimate is 71.87% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-31

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~32% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

Stage 1 -4.42% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 7.97%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-31
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 30 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 30.5%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 5.3%Revenue (TTM): 6.16%FCF (TTM): -1.77%P/FCF: 85th pct

What changed

The stock rose 5.3% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.16% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 4.18% to 4.39%. Free cash flow declined 1.77% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved higher against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 4.39%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 6.16% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Walmart Inc., established in 1945 and based in Bentonville, Arkansas, operates as a global retail powerhouse, having officially adopted its current name in February 2018, formerly Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.

CEOJohn Furner

SectorConsumer Defensive

IndustryDiscount Stores

Employees2,100,000

IPO dateAug 25, 1972

https://corporate.walmart.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA21.68

Enterprise value$1.01T

Stock splits

Feb 26, 2024↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Apr 20, 1999↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Feb 26, 1993↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 9, 1990↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 13, 1987↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 7, 1985↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 11, 1983↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 12, 1982↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth5.94%

Gross margin25.23%▲0.1ppvs FY2025

Operating margin4.39%▼0.1ppvs FY2025

ROE23.44%▲0.5ppvs FY2026

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$128.84▲21.86%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 19, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.63 · Revenue est $187.31B

View

Dividends

$0.99/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 43yrSafe

WMT pays a dividend with a 0.94% declared yield, 43 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.19% annually, covered 2.0× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

0.94%

Annual Div / Share

$0.99

5yr CAGR

+6.19%

Doubles every ~11.5yr

Payout Ratio

34.87%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+9.21%

5yr CAGR

+6.19%

10yr CAGR

+4.03%

Dividend Safety

9/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.99+5.3%

2025$0.94+13.3%

2024$0.83+9.2%

2023$0.76+1.8%

2022$0.75+1.8%

2021$0.73+1.8%

2020$0.72+1.9%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$9/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$13/yr+35%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$17/yr+82%

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$9/yr $1/mo	$13/yr+35% $1/mo	$17/yr+82% $1/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.94% → 1.71% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

WMT has raised its dividend for 43 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.0× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 6.19% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NASDAQ · WMT

Walmart Inc.

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

$105.73▼ 0.09% ($0.10)at close

Pre-market$106.39▲ 0.62%8:29 AM ET

52-week

$98.88$135.16

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $105.73, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 22.53%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by -4.42%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 26.95 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

-4.42%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

22.53%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$105.73

Estimated value / share

$29.75

Base scenario

This estimate is 71.87% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-31

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Stage 1 -4.42% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 7.97%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-31
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 30 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 30.5%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 5.3%Revenue (TTM): 6.16%FCF (TTM): -1.77%P/FCF: 85th pct

What changed

The stock rose 5.3% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.16% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 4.18% to 4.39%. Free cash flow declined 1.77% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 4.39%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 6.16% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

CEOJohn Furner

SectorConsumer Defensive

IndustryDiscount Stores

Employees2,100,000

IPO dateAug 25, 1972

https://corporate.walmart.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA21.68

Enterprise value$1.01T

Stock splits

Feb 26, 2024↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Apr 20, 1999↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Feb 26, 1993↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 9, 1990↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 13, 1987↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 7, 1985↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 11, 1983↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 12, 1982↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth5.94%

Gross margin25.23%▲0.1ppvs FY2025

Operating margin4.39%▼0.1ppvs FY2025

ROE23.44%▲0.5ppvs FY2026

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$128.84▲21.86%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 19, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.63 · Revenue est $187.31B

View

Dividends

$0.99/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 43yrSafe

WMT pays a dividend with a 0.94% declared yield, 43 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.19% annually, covered 2.0× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

0.94%

Annual Div / Share

$0.99

5yr CAGR

+6.19%

Doubles every ~11.5yr

Payout Ratio

34.87%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+9.21%

5yr CAGR

+6.19%

10yr CAGR

+4.03%

Dividend Safety

9/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.99+5.3%

2025$0.94+13.3%

2024$0.83+9.2%

2023$0.76+1.8%

2022$0.75+1.8%

2021$0.73+1.8%

2020$0.72+1.9%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$9/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$13/yr+35%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$17/yr+82%

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$9/yr $1/mo	$13/yr+35% $1/mo	$17/yr+82% $1/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.94% → 1.71% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

WMT has raised its dividend for 43 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.0× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 6.19% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.